Let's Not Become Like Russia

This morning, I had an opportunity to hear an interview with a Russion historian Leonid Melchin.

He brought up several salient points about contemporary Russia and its foreign and domestic policy:

First, he said, it's always much easier to look for big external enemies to shift blame for your internal problems and to justify doing nothing to address the smaller quality-of-life issues in your back yard.  It's much more glamorous to fight with NATO than to go rebuild your failing infrastructure or take care of your ailing neighbor.

Second, Russia's culture has been in ruins for several generations starting with the elimination of the farmers and the expulsion of intelligentsia after the Revolution.  The Civil War actually caused millions of people to flee, and millions of others to die or to lose everything, including social influence, resulting in largely uneducated, uncouth people being next in line to take over the country right after the middle class revolutionary leaders, many of whom themselves later perished in purges.  That ruined the ethical underpinnings of the society resulting in country being ruled by thugs for many decades, and adopting a largely criminal based form of governance and life philosophy.

Finally, perennial apathy and laziness are preventing people from assuming any level of responsibility on an individual level. For instance, Russia's peripheral regions are doing nothing to engage in self-improvements, largely relying on the non-existent and corrupt system of subsidies from Moscow, under the excuses that the Chinese are eventually going to take over everything anyway, so there is no reason to put any effort into improving one's own life. Melchin, however, argues that it's patently untrue. The influence of the Chinese is greatly exaggerated, and to some extent, failure to address existing economic and social issues creates a self-fulfilling prophecy of these regions becoming depleted of human resources and ripe for take over by migrant populations.

Moreover, it's nonsense to believe the fatalistic refrain that sooner or later, Russia will fall apart and become at best a federation of weak autonomies. The federal system, he says, is very strong, and no one is going anywhere. Nor is Russia going to die out due to low demographics, aging population, alcoholism and so forth. All these are significant problems, but Russia has gone through a great deal of turmoil over the centuries, including persistent economic issues such as poor economy and lack of viable infrastructure, and yet here we are, with Russia still boasting a high population and significant involvement in international affairs. However, the course it's pursuing is less North-Korea bound, than completely irrelevance and inaction on all fronts.

Why should this be of any interest to the United States?  Because the same populist claims and excuses are reverberating both on the left and on the right of the US society, creating the danger that despite the strong economy and other achievements we have accomplished through the history of good work ethic and dedication to upward mobility, defeatist philosophy that seeks to blame our internal weaknesses on outward forces, such as immigrants, "the Establishment", corporations, the left, the right, and frankly, anyone but the weakening local cultures and lack of consistent education to growth, education, and self-improvement is putting us on the same deteriorating path as Russia, our foil for endless excuse-making regarding the internal weaknesses resulting from bad decisionmaking of the Obama administration, and various private and public actors.

Populist nationalism (as opposed to healthy, growth-oriented nationalism) is the last result of the excuse seekers, who seek to shift the blame elsewhere rather than to actually find and implement solutions that will address existing problems internally. Bannonism philosophy sounds appealing to patriots starved for a healthy national self-image, but in reality it provides little relief who those genuinely dedicated to greatness. Instead, it's a distraction from a necessary conversation about the improvement in education, ethics, social values, and the strengthening of our communities that we should be having as a permanent long-term solution to the various problems assailing our culture. Indeed, a reactionary mindset of trying to provide quick fixes to external attacks ignores the structural internal weakness that help view all such developments as attacks and downsides rather than opportunities.

Our national conversation has become excessively focused on symptoms, rather than causes. And while we are busy playing wack-a-mole with cultural and social issues, the causes persist, affecting even those who claim to stand against all that is harmful and in favor of all that is beneficial. Pausing for a bit of self-reflection as to how we came to be in a place when identity politics and finger=pointing dominate discussion on both sides of the aisle when that was exactly the sort of thing that conservatives claimed to stand against to begin with might do us some good.

Is Turkey preparing for mass atrocities against Kurds and other minorities?

Systemic dehumanization of Kurds (not just PKK) has been going for the past two years, since the conflict Erdogan unleashed against PKK in order to justify his manipulation of the elections, as AKP floundered in a failing economy. Of course, the conflict ended up largely targeting civilians, and included burned buildings, tortures, murders of women and children, and a widespread crackdown on civil rights in the entire region, which precipitated the rise of authoritarianism across the country.

Now, books about Kurds are being banned on national security grounds.

Historically, using pejorative language against a minority ethnic or religious group, and consequently claiming that the entire group is a national security danger, a fifth column, or an enemy within has been used to justify attempted mass elimination of that group.

The group may be a historic rival of another group, or it may just be a convenient scapegoat, but whatever the political grievances used as a justification eventually end up being largely used against civilians and innocent bystanders.

We have seen the Nazis compare Jews to rats until that concept became firmly lodged in the minds of much of the country as the Nuremberg Laws were being imposed, and as the FInal Solution was adopted.

We have seen this in Rwanda, where a politician would call Tutsis "cockroaches", leading to the perception of that group as inferior, inherently worthless, destructive, and disgusting. Regular people were so brainwashed into believing that other human beings had nothing human about them that they were living to stand by or even partake in mass murder.

Kurds are increasingly being portrayed as all members of PKK and all a national security danger to Turkey. There is an implication that they are disloyal, that they spy for foreign governments. Professors at universities have been fired for being Kurdish, sometimes under the excuse that they were a foreign element, and sometimes for no reason other than the fact that they were a minority.

Kurdish newspapers have been shut down; Kurdish politicians thrown in prison; Kurdish social media accounts and websites have been blocked.

The entire group is being indiscriminantly treated as members of an uprising.

Turks are being conditioned, programmed to believe that you cannot trust members of that community, that anything written about Kurds is by definition against unified Turkish identity; that identifying oneself as a minority is a threat to Turkish culture and to the government, that speaking any language other than Turkish means that you may be planning a government coup or that you are a separatist that wants to split the country apart and start a civil war. This incendiary rhetoric coupled with action distracts the population from Erdogan's crackdowns on other fronts; scapegoats the Kurds, and creates an internal enemy linked to external enemies - the Kurds in Syria, who wants to form an autonomy, with territory that would be contiguous with the Kurdish areas of Turkey, and with KRG, that just voted to form an independent state and is claiming Kirkuk - an area that Turkey insists it has historic claims on - as its own.

Now, Erdogan's expansionist, neo-Ottoman ambitions have a solid justification: security of Turkey, which is under threat from a militant nation that is surrounding it from all sides and is trying to take away Turkish land. And it has coopted a signficant portion of its population, into a fifth column, and the PKK is not just a terrorist organization, it's paid by enemies. And anyone who supports Kurdish aspirations for independence is opposed to Turkish national sovereignty.

See how it all works?

Unless the United States and its Western powers, utilizing all the significant leverage that they have, make it clear to Erdogan that this dehumanizing campaign ends full stop or else, we are very likely to see further significant infringements on human rights of the Kurds in Turkey and outside of it, and possibly, if the events continue to unravel in the same direction, bloody massacres and other atrocities that will not spare women or children, to follow.

Erdogan is on a path of no return, and the more he is appeased under the pretense of NATO alliance and dealmaking, the more he is likely to utilize this freedom against his own population, starting with the people that make a very compelling target for a bloodthirsty dictator, obsessed with staying in power, and the brainwashed masses who are being increasingly whipped up by an Islamist, nationalist frenzy - a terrible combination, to be sure.

I hope the international community, and particularly the US government, firmly intervenes before it's too late.

Kurds Have All the Reasons in the World To Seek Independence from Iraq

Sunni Saddam Hussein gassed Kurds during the Iran-Iraq war.

Current Shia Iraqi government cancelled flights to and from Erbil, conducting joint exercises with the Islamic Republic near Iraqi Kurdistan border, and threatening to repossess Kurdish oil fields.

Just why exactly would anyone in his right mind wish to stay part of that country under such circumstances?

The Rain in Spain is a Conflict With Catalonia No One Can Explain

The Spain/Catalonia referendum controversy is becoming a bit of an uncomfortable issue, isn't it?
The way I look at it, on many levels, it's a bit different from the situation with Kurdistan, because:

- allegedly, over 60% of Catalonians actually don't want independence; it's their government that pushed for referendum.
- Catalonia is the wealthiest part of Spain, and some argue that the referendum is just posturing to get more autonomy and additional tax benefits from Spain.
- the degree of autonomy Catalonia currently has is much less than what Kurdistan enjoys, and it's unclear how it will sustain itself as an independent force.
- Catalonia does not seem politically prepared for such a step and does not have independent semi-formal diplomatic relations with other countries, the way KRG does.
- Catalonia would have to restart the entire process of application to the EU as a member state from scratch, just as EU warned Scotland it would in the event of its secession.
- I get the sense that outside EU, most people have no idea who Catalonians are or why they even want independence.

That said, Catalonians do have a legitimate long history of conflict with other parts of the country and wanting to break free. And unlike Basques, their independence movement has been peaceful, without the disturbing history of terrorism. Spain seems intent on denying Catalonians any opportunity to leave (probably out of financial considerations, and also fearing that it would encourage other parts of the country to fall away), and has cracked down on the referendum long before it actually happened by siccing police on the buildings where the ballots are being printed and arresting government officials. Spain also declined to increase the degree of autonomy that the Catalonian government has demanded.

In response, Catalonians have been marching in unbelievably numerous mass gatherings (all peaceful), some of which have met with a push back from the police.
Frankly, it's not looking like it's going anywhere good, and Spain is mishandling the situation just about as badly as one can mishandle something that may not have been all that serious when at the outset, but is NOW indeed growing into a national movement, likely all because of Spain's over-the-top response, which appears to be disproportionate and undemocratic. This little known conflict that no one even cared about even a week ago is now generating international attention, sympathy from the national determination types, and is making the Spanish government look outdated, colonialist, tyrannical, and terrible, whatever the merits of their arguments against the Catalonian secession may be.

We are living in interesting times. I don't know that Spain actually WANTS or is ready for a civil war, which would require massive resources, bloodletting, bearing with international condemnation, and worse yet, possibly losing. But I also don't see how it can afford to lose face at this point by simply giving in to Catolonian secession. The wiser step for everyone would have been a negotiation over terms for increased autonomy for X number of years, at which point, it could have been reviewed and MAYBE at that point the referendum could have been reconsidered. Instead, Spain is falling victim to its own greed.

Not being particularly close to either party, I am rather dispassionate about the ultimate outcome, outside, of course, wishing for a peaceful conclusion to the crisis. Just as interestingly, I find that this recent propensity for breaking away of colonial barriers, is causing nation states to fall apart into increasingly small and potential weak entities, while simultaneously, many of the European countries facing these identity questions, are struggling to absorb millions of mostly Muslim refugees from countries with very different histories and cultures, while also contending with their own failing demographics, and angry populist movements of every imaginable political background. In other words, this crisis is just yet another episode in the increasingly volatile situation in Europe, and a great illustration of what happens when you fail to deal with identity issues in a healthy, thoughtful way early and often.