Serious question:
Why were the breakups of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia legit, but when Catalonia wants to secede, suddenly everyone cares about Spain's territorial integrity?
Showing posts with label Catalonia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Catalonia. Show all posts
Saturday, October 28, 2017
Sunday, October 1, 2017
The Catalonian Crisis
Events are taking a nasty turn in Catalonia, as the attempt at referendum are quickly going South.
Spanish forces are out firing rubber bullets and striking at peaceful voters, and it's all over the Internet, easily losing the PR battle for the Spanish government.
Whether or not this unrest will end in more serious clashes remains to be seen, but so far it's not looking good.
Concerns of both sides are understandable: Catalonians perhaps should have done more to create an appearance of a serious legitimate process, whereas the Spanish government has jumped the shark with its violent reaction to an event they a priori declared unconstitutional.
Unlike London, which brought forth a well organized campaign to keep Scotland from seceding, Spain has not even attempted a peaceful countercampaign explaining why it's advantageous for Catalonia to stay in place. And balkanization of Spain may set a dangerous precedent for other countries, experiencing similar waves of populism. While Europeans are eating each other alive, terrorists and insurgent forces can easily take advantage of the chaos to claim power and literally take over territories in the future, effectively creating new Syria in Spain and other countries. On the other hand, populist governments of European mini-states are not taking into account the long and problematic path to EU membership, which they all crave. Could this be the beginning of the end for the EU? That remains to be seen, but it's clear that after Spain used physical force to try to shut down the Catalonian referendum, the latter will not be easily pacified.
Spain is a bit farther from Israel than Iraqi Kurdistan, and the government chose to remain mum on the issue, but sent in observers to the referendum, in the eyes of some legitimizing this process, perhaps unduly so.
Other European states are likewise silent thus far, though undoubtedly there will be the usual reasonable talking heads trying to bring all parties to the table for negotiations.
Brussels has a number of headaches in its hands at the moment: Scottish secessionism, Spanish clashes with Catalonians, the rise of the far right in Germany, and of course, the Russian interference in elections all over Europe, and particularly, excessive involvement in Balkan states. So far, however, I see no signs that the Belgian bureaucrats and others of their ilk have learned the lessons of Brexit and are ready to address the issues of national sovereignty with individual states. Instead, they seem to be doubling down on punitive attitudes towards the United Kingdom, and are trying to force their will with regards to refugees and other issues on less interested countries such as Poland.
What was once supposed to be a promising free economic zone, became a nightmarish network of clashing interests and ambitions, with old school authoritarianism hiding under the polite masks of diplospeak at the helm of it all. The stronger countries are looking to throw their weight around to impose their will on the rest of the members, while the weaker countries appear to be content to float along, taking advantage of the more economically powerful neighbors, but getting angry whenever their own interests appear to be breached. Overall, no matter how you feel about the idea of the EU and pan-European values, this is an unsustainable situation, and Brexit, and now, the Catalonian referendum shows you that multiculturalism will only get you so far, before the value of freedom becomes self-evident.
Spanish forces are out firing rubber bullets and striking at peaceful voters, and it's all over the Internet, easily losing the PR battle for the Spanish government.
Whether or not this unrest will end in more serious clashes remains to be seen, but so far it's not looking good.
Concerns of both sides are understandable: Catalonians perhaps should have done more to create an appearance of a serious legitimate process, whereas the Spanish government has jumped the shark with its violent reaction to an event they a priori declared unconstitutional.
Unlike London, which brought forth a well organized campaign to keep Scotland from seceding, Spain has not even attempted a peaceful countercampaign explaining why it's advantageous for Catalonia to stay in place. And balkanization of Spain may set a dangerous precedent for other countries, experiencing similar waves of populism. While Europeans are eating each other alive, terrorists and insurgent forces can easily take advantage of the chaos to claim power and literally take over territories in the future, effectively creating new Syria in Spain and other countries. On the other hand, populist governments of European mini-states are not taking into account the long and problematic path to EU membership, which they all crave. Could this be the beginning of the end for the EU? That remains to be seen, but it's clear that after Spain used physical force to try to shut down the Catalonian referendum, the latter will not be easily pacified.
Spain is a bit farther from Israel than Iraqi Kurdistan, and the government chose to remain mum on the issue, but sent in observers to the referendum, in the eyes of some legitimizing this process, perhaps unduly so.
Other European states are likewise silent thus far, though undoubtedly there will be the usual reasonable talking heads trying to bring all parties to the table for negotiations.
Brussels has a number of headaches in its hands at the moment: Scottish secessionism, Spanish clashes with Catalonians, the rise of the far right in Germany, and of course, the Russian interference in elections all over Europe, and particularly, excessive involvement in Balkan states. So far, however, I see no signs that the Belgian bureaucrats and others of their ilk have learned the lessons of Brexit and are ready to address the issues of national sovereignty with individual states. Instead, they seem to be doubling down on punitive attitudes towards the United Kingdom, and are trying to force their will with regards to refugees and other issues on less interested countries such as Poland.
What was once supposed to be a promising free economic zone, became a nightmarish network of clashing interests and ambitions, with old school authoritarianism hiding under the polite masks of diplospeak at the helm of it all. The stronger countries are looking to throw their weight around to impose their will on the rest of the members, while the weaker countries appear to be content to float along, taking advantage of the more economically powerful neighbors, but getting angry whenever their own interests appear to be breached. Overall, no matter how you feel about the idea of the EU and pan-European values, this is an unsustainable situation, and Brexit, and now, the Catalonian referendum shows you that multiculturalism will only get you so far, before the value of freedom becomes self-evident.
Friday, September 29, 2017
The Rain in Spain is a Conflict With Catalonia No One Can Explain
The Spain/Catalonia referendum controversy is becoming a bit of an uncomfortable issue, isn't it?
The way I look at it, on many levels, it's a bit different from the situation with Kurdistan, because:
- allegedly, over 60% of Catalonians actually don't want independence; it's their government that pushed for referendum.
- Catalonia is the wealthiest part of Spain, and some argue that the referendum is just posturing to get more autonomy and additional tax benefits from Spain.
- the degree of autonomy Catalonia currently has is much less than what Kurdistan enjoys, and it's unclear how it will sustain itself as an independent force.
- Catalonia does not seem politically prepared for such a step and does not have independent semi-formal diplomatic relations with other countries, the way KRG does.
- Catalonia would have to restart the entire process of application to the EU as a member state from scratch, just as EU warned Scotland it would in the event of its secession.
- I get the sense that outside EU, most people have no idea who Catalonians are or why they even want independence.
That said, Catalonians do have a legitimate long history of conflict with other parts of the country and wanting to break free. And unlike Basques, their independence movement has been peaceful, without the disturbing history of terrorism. Spain seems intent on denying Catalonians any opportunity to leave (probably out of financial considerations, and also fearing that it would encourage other parts of the country to fall away), and has cracked down on the referendum long before it actually happened by siccing police on the buildings where the ballots are being printed and arresting government officials. Spain also declined to increase the degree of autonomy that the Catalonian government has demanded.
In response, Catalonians have been marching in unbelievably numerous mass gatherings (all peaceful), some of which have met with a push back from the police.
Frankly, it's not looking like it's going anywhere good, and Spain is mishandling the situation just about as badly as one can mishandle something that may not have been all that serious when at the outset, but is NOW indeed growing into a national movement, likely all because of Spain's over-the-top response, which appears to be disproportionate and undemocratic. This little known conflict that no one even cared about even a week ago is now generating international attention, sympathy from the national determination types, and is making the Spanish government look outdated, colonialist, tyrannical, and terrible, whatever the merits of their arguments against the Catalonian secession may be.
We are living in interesting times. I don't know that Spain actually WANTS or is ready for a civil war, which would require massive resources, bloodletting, bearing with international condemnation, and worse yet, possibly losing. But I also don't see how it can afford to lose face at this point by simply giving in to Catolonian secession. The wiser step for everyone would have been a negotiation over terms for increased autonomy for X number of years, at which point, it could have been reviewed and MAYBE at that point the referendum could have been reconsidered. Instead, Spain is falling victim to its own greed.
Not being particularly close to either party, I am rather dispassionate about the ultimate outcome, outside, of course, wishing for a peaceful conclusion to the crisis. Just as interestingly, I find that this recent propensity for breaking away of colonial barriers, is causing nation states to fall apart into increasingly small and potential weak entities, while simultaneously, many of the European countries facing these identity questions, are struggling to absorb millions of mostly Muslim refugees from countries with very different histories and cultures, while also contending with their own failing demographics, and angry populist movements of every imaginable political background. In other words, this crisis is just yet another episode in the increasingly volatile situation in Europe, and a great illustration of what happens when you fail to deal with identity issues in a healthy, thoughtful way early and often.
The way I look at it, on many levels, it's a bit different from the situation with Kurdistan, because:
- allegedly, over 60% of Catalonians actually don't want independence; it's their government that pushed for referendum.
- Catalonia is the wealthiest part of Spain, and some argue that the referendum is just posturing to get more autonomy and additional tax benefits from Spain.
- the degree of autonomy Catalonia currently has is much less than what Kurdistan enjoys, and it's unclear how it will sustain itself as an independent force.
- Catalonia does not seem politically prepared for such a step and does not have independent semi-formal diplomatic relations with other countries, the way KRG does.
- Catalonia would have to restart the entire process of application to the EU as a member state from scratch, just as EU warned Scotland it would in the event of its secession.
- I get the sense that outside EU, most people have no idea who Catalonians are or why they even want independence.
That said, Catalonians do have a legitimate long history of conflict with other parts of the country and wanting to break free. And unlike Basques, their independence movement has been peaceful, without the disturbing history of terrorism. Spain seems intent on denying Catalonians any opportunity to leave (probably out of financial considerations, and also fearing that it would encourage other parts of the country to fall away), and has cracked down on the referendum long before it actually happened by siccing police on the buildings where the ballots are being printed and arresting government officials. Spain also declined to increase the degree of autonomy that the Catalonian government has demanded.
In response, Catalonians have been marching in unbelievably numerous mass gatherings (all peaceful), some of which have met with a push back from the police.
Frankly, it's not looking like it's going anywhere good, and Spain is mishandling the situation just about as badly as one can mishandle something that may not have been all that serious when at the outset, but is NOW indeed growing into a national movement, likely all because of Spain's over-the-top response, which appears to be disproportionate and undemocratic. This little known conflict that no one even cared about even a week ago is now generating international attention, sympathy from the national determination types, and is making the Spanish government look outdated, colonialist, tyrannical, and terrible, whatever the merits of their arguments against the Catalonian secession may be.
We are living in interesting times. I don't know that Spain actually WANTS or is ready for a civil war, which would require massive resources, bloodletting, bearing with international condemnation, and worse yet, possibly losing. But I also don't see how it can afford to lose face at this point by simply giving in to Catolonian secession. The wiser step for everyone would have been a negotiation over terms for increased autonomy for X number of years, at which point, it could have been reviewed and MAYBE at that point the referendum could have been reconsidered. Instead, Spain is falling victim to its own greed.
Not being particularly close to either party, I am rather dispassionate about the ultimate outcome, outside, of course, wishing for a peaceful conclusion to the crisis. Just as interestingly, I find that this recent propensity for breaking away of colonial barriers, is causing nation states to fall apart into increasingly small and potential weak entities, while simultaneously, many of the European countries facing these identity questions, are struggling to absorb millions of mostly Muslim refugees from countries with very different histories and cultures, while also contending with their own failing demographics, and angry populist movements of every imaginable political background. In other words, this crisis is just yet another episode in the increasingly volatile situation in Europe, and a great illustration of what happens when you fail to deal with identity issues in a healthy, thoughtful way early and often.
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