Sunday, October 1, 2017

The Catalonian Crisis

Events are taking a nasty turn in Catalonia, as the attempt at referendum are quickly going South.

Spanish forces are out firing rubber bullets and striking at peaceful voters, and it's all over the Internet, easily losing the PR battle for the Spanish government.

Whether or not this unrest will end in more serious clashes remains to be seen, but so far it's not looking good.

Concerns of both sides are understandable: Catalonians perhaps should have done more to create an appearance of a serious legitimate process, whereas the Spanish government has jumped the shark with its violent reaction to an event they a priori declared unconstitutional.

Unlike London, which brought forth a well organized campaign to keep Scotland from seceding, Spain has not even attempted a peaceful countercampaign explaining why it's advantageous for Catalonia to stay in place. And balkanization of Spain may set a dangerous precedent for other countries, experiencing similar waves of populism. While Europeans are eating each other alive, terrorists and insurgent forces can easily take advantage of the chaos to claim power and literally take over territories in the future, effectively creating new Syria in Spain and other countries. On the other hand, populist governments of European mini-states are not taking into account the long and problematic path to EU membership, which they all crave. Could this be the beginning of the end for the EU? That remains to be seen, but it's clear that after Spain used physical force to try to shut down the Catalonian referendum, the latter will not be easily pacified.

Spain is a bit farther from Israel than Iraqi Kurdistan, and the government chose to remain mum on the issue, but sent in observers to the referendum, in the eyes of some legitimizing this process, perhaps unduly so.

Other European states are likewise silent thus far, though undoubtedly there will be the usual reasonable talking heads trying to bring all parties to the table for negotiations.

Brussels has a number of headaches in its hands at the moment: Scottish secessionism,  Spanish clashes with Catalonians, the rise of the far right in Germany, and of course, the Russian interference in elections all over Europe, and particularly,  excessive involvement in Balkan states. So far, however, I see no signs that the Belgian bureaucrats and others of their ilk have learned the lessons of Brexit and are ready to address the issues of national sovereignty with individual states. Instead, they seem to be doubling down on punitive attitudes towards the United Kingdom, and are trying to force their will with regards to refugees and other issues on less interested countries such as Poland.

What was once supposed to be a promising free economic zone, became a nightmarish network of clashing interests and ambitions, with old school authoritarianism hiding under the polite masks of diplospeak at the helm of it all. The stronger countries are looking to throw their weight around to impose their will on the rest of the members, while the weaker countries appear to be content to float along, taking advantage of the more economically powerful neighbors, but getting angry whenever their own interests appear to be breached. Overall, no matter how you feel about the idea of the EU and pan-European values, this is an unsustainable situation, and Brexit, and now, the Catalonian referendum shows you that multiculturalism will only get you so far, before the value of freedom becomes self-evident.

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