US is grasping defeat from the jaws of victory in Iraq

Two disturbing developments: Hashd, an Iran-backed militia, basically told US forces in Iraq to get lost. So if the US has been supporting Abadi vis-a-vis Kurds in hopes that Abadi is going to be better than someone more pro-Iranian leader, they are in for a disappointment. Iraq now has much more powerful buddies - Iran and Russia, which is seeking to widen its business operations in Iraq, and particularly, Iraqi Kurdistan, and increasingly doesn't need the US. US is losing out not only with Kurds but with Iraq as well entirely due to its show of weakness. That's an important cultural point that the administration simply doesn't get, because it thinks only in terms of short-term military tactics, without understanding the tribal nature of the societies it's dealing with. Furthermore, US is endangering the local minorities. Iraqi military has made it clear that it doesn't have control over Iranian militias and what they choose to do to Yazidis, Christians, and others. Second, Iraq is seeking to not only control 100% of oil fields in Iraqi Kurdistan, but to block important passages to Syria and Turkey. That will prevent freedom of movements for Kurds who have passed back and forth unrestricted since the beginning of life in that area. It's actually very, very dangerous and will enable Turkey to potentially enter the area in the future. It will also prevent Peshmerga from assisting with fight against ISIS or other terrorists in Syria.

It's All About the Pipelines - and it's in the Pipeline

While the international community is focused on Russia's aggressive military actions in George, Ukraine, Moldova, Syria, and elsewhere, much of Russia's geopolitical reconquista has been focused on bypassing sanctions and competitions via forging bonds with new allies and old competitors through joint economic projects, which would play up its own strength - the abundance of natural resources. Russia's strategy of using oil and gas to pressure Europe into submission had initially backfired as the European Union eventually developed new rules to secure its gas supply and prevent isolation by focusing too much on single source, such as the fickle and manipulative Putin regime.

Russia is looking to profit from a major pipeline into Turkey, that brings Turkey and Russia closer together and bypassing its competitors.

In a similar move earlier this year, Putin took steps to bypass Ukraine.

Russia uses natural resources to pressure its rivals and to wield power over those who are perceived to threaten its dominance.

The pipeline to Turkey would also be a way of getting around US and European sanctions:

The effect of this project would also to bring KRG back to doing business with Erdogan.  This is undesirable, because so long as Erdogan enjoys any sort of legitimacy from his intended victims, much less the international community, he will continue on his downward path.

Meanwhile, the construction of the planned Russian-Turkish pipeline is going full steam ahead.

Last December, at around the time the Russian ambassador was assassinated under suspicious circumstances in Turkey, there were rumors of secret negotiations between Russia and Turkey over the pipeline and defense deals that would repair relations between the countries, even as the assassination story was allegedly  concocted to cover up the growing closeness despite the macho rhetoric of both leaders only shortly before. As we now see, those negotiations came to pass and are bearing fruit, with the blessing of the US government, which, at the time, informed by then-NSA Michael Flynn (who was found to have business-related conflicts of interests with both Russia and Turkey), chose not to intervene.

The result? Loss of leverage over Turkey as it seeks to shift its revenue stream to a business relationship with Russia, and increased disregard for other countries' sovereignty, NATO's concern over terrorist organization, and interest in maintaining a relationship with the United States. As Turkey grows closer with Russia and becomes independent of the West, it's becoming increasingly more brazen and difficult to control, and moreover our relative ability to benefit from that relationship is becoming limited by the minute.  

At this point, in order to regain control of the situation, the US must embark on very decisive combination of tough economic and diplomatic policies against both Russia and Turkey, while stimulating and improving relationships with those countries in the region that can balance out this unhealthy predicament. These actions would have to include blacklisting individuals connected to gross human rights violations, and in Turkey's case, anyone connected to improper detention and imprisonment of an American evangelical pastor, freezing the off-shore accounts by corrupt Russian and Turkish officials and stopping the flow of dirty money into the United Stats, cutting off unregistered lobbying and propaganda efforts by the agents of both countries, and preventing the intelligence services of both regimes from aggressive active measures, including infiltration and intimidation of diaspora communities and dissidents, in the United States.

Keep in mind that Turkey is not exactly waiting for the US to iron out every aspect of its foreign policy. Turkey is plunging into Syria, willing to coordinate its actions with Syria, and sidelining its initial misgivings about keeping Assad in power, so long as it is free to take action to keep Kurds from acquiring contiguous territory that would border the Kurdish majority territories of Turkey. Turkey is also looking at Syria as a potential area for further development, and wants to exert both political and economic influence there to the degree possible.

 Forming a stronger and more invested relationship with KRG, and despite all difficulties, placing more weight on the Georgia-Azerbaijan angle as well as carefully reorienting the Greece-Cyprus-Israel triangle may help shift the events in that region towards our interests. It looks like the four countries most concerned about Russia's expansionism - Georgia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, and Moldova -  are already on the way to create a free trade zone. US should encourage this alliance and look at it as an important opportunity.  Keep in mind that Azerbaijan is dictatorial, incompetent, and pro-Turkey, but it's also in desperate economic need, anti-Russian, and anti-Iranian, and just corrupt enough that it can be temporarily shifted towards a more productive political line.

At the end of the day, the United States has to remember that developing positive business relationship with old friends and new allies is just as important as taking punitive measures against adversaries and political frienemies who need to be shown their place. Identifying and actively pursuing attractive economic opportunities is the key to a successful and positive geopolitical strategy, as well as innovative possibilities for American workers of all backgrounds. This is one example of how today's globalized world can actually help and provide important pathways to job creation rather than the destructive and pessimistic view of international job outsourcing we've been presented by populist economic nationalists throughout the Obama administration leading up to where we are today.

How US Can Do the Right Thing By the Kurds, While Avoiding Crisis

The US at this juncture has significant leverage over Baghdad.

President Trump can exercise that leverage effectively by having the airport ban lifted, not with loud proclamations that can only create indignation with the Iraqi government, but with nuanced behind the scenes diplomacy.

The ban is not going to change anyone's mind about independence, only gets people more intent to move forward as soon as possible unilaterally and with no negotiations.

At the same time, it's causing damage to Kurdish economy, creates undue suffering for civilians, and causing problems for US investors working on oil projects in the region.

The US has invested untold amount of money into Iraqi government - just so they could repay us by creating a de facto blockade against our allies, and preventing us from getting in and out?

It serves no legitimate purpose and actually causes the US to look weak - weaker than the Iraqi government, and unable to defend our own interests.

Weighing in on this issue will allow the US to retain credibility with the Kurds while also pushing both sides towards a negotiated solution to the current face-off.

Second, the US should play a role in negotiations over Kirkuk and oil, which are central to any successful bilateral discussion.

Kurds, Iraq, and even Turkey are all making a play for that crucial territory. While many can argue about what legitimacy any one of these sides has towards a territory that has at one point been woefully allocated to the fictional country of Iraq by the British,  from US perspective, there is a simple, straightforward answer to the dilemma. It's not in the US interests to have the Iran-backed Baghdad have complete access to the oil, and there are few things more alarming than seeing the increasingly unfriendly Turkey with an independent revenue inside what is essentially Kurdish territory. While Turkey is making plans to invade the Kurdish region of Iraq, even if that means having to overcome peshmerga guarding all current routes, and dealing with PKK, which finally found a bit of a safe harbor with the KRG,  the US is interested in avoiding additional protracted regional conflicts, and keeping oil out of the hands of the increasingly dictatorial Erdogan.

US has credibility, because ultimately it doesn't need Kirkuk oil. US is growing independent of foreign oil through increased development of its own resources and research into alternative sources of energy. Some businesses still benefit from investment into oil extraction in that area, but ultimately, US has other sources of revenue, and for that reason would make for a fair and acceptable arbiter. US, for instance, can reasonably ask Kurds to compensate Iraq for the perceived loss of oil-related revenue, or to negotiate a rental or sharing agreement of some sort, as a precondition for a peaceful parting of ways.  US involvement is infinitely preferable to Russia's, which may be looking to gain leverage over Iran and Turkey, via its backing of KRG, but is also a largely self-interested actor, whose involvement in Syria has been anything but stabilizing and peaceful, and the expansion of whose role throughout the region is not something the US or anyone else ultimately would want to see.

The alternative to US involvement is either a very high likelihood of an international conflict between several allies and an adversary thrown in, or a significant empowerment of Russia in the role of an international broker. These are the scenarios best avoided.

Finally, US can ensure a peaceful transition by continuing being perceived as a strong, well-meaning ally, whose perspective deserves consideration - both by the Kurds and by Iraq. To do so with the Kurds, US should immediately renew the payment of stipends to peshmerga, initiated last year by the Obama administration. The Trump administration ceased payment as soon as the year-long agreement expired, and so far, has not renegotiated the continuation of the agreement, due to perceived uncertainty over the referendum.

Now, however, is not the time for Swiss neutrality, but rather for an active role in supporting one ally and reassuring the other one, while showing strength and resolution in the face of enemies and frienemies, who are all too ready to exploit the vacuum.  We are much more likely to resolve tensions and avoid conflict by keeping to our alliances and showing our worth as a dependable and respectable friend, than by fleeing at the first sign of trouble, and leaving those who have served our purposes by bravely fighting ISIS out to dry.

Staying out of the issue and refusing to back Kurds in times of need will not win us friends or allies in the Middle East, a region that values strength, loyalty, and strategic consistence over quibbling, appeasement, and insecurity. And US has much to be secure about. It has strength, moral clarity, and a set of values that have made it a desirable harbor for aspiring immigrants and refugees from around the world. It can play an important in diplomatic role in preventing conflicts before they begin, not just having to resolve them once the die is cast. I suggest we do so, before the chaos and disputes plaguing the region engulf even the places that are currently enjoying relative stability and can serve as exemplars for peace and prosperity if we play our cards right.

Putting America, Not Iran, Russia, or Turkey, First

13 Then Mordecai told them to reply to Esther, “Do not think to yourself that in the king's palace you will escape any more than all the other Jews. 14 For if you keep silent at this time, relief and deliverance will rise for the Jews from another place, but you and your father's house will perish. And who knows whether you have not come to the kingdom for such a time as this?”

Whenever I see this quote from the story of Purim recited out loud on the holiday, I am reminded that we each have an opportunity to step up to the plate and do something meaningful that may prevent great suffering and change the world for the better. But if we don't take that opportunity to embrace our full potential to do some good, someone else might.  And truth be told, in real life, the opportunity that we deny ourselves other people grasp all the time... with mixed results. Sometimes we really CAN do the job better than anyone else, and sometime we might be the only one standing between whatever it is that we can do, however imperfect, and a much greater disaster.

US has sometimes regretted its seemingly undesirable role as the world's policeman. Indeed, it's not our job to interfere in every skirmish, and frankly, detrimental to our interests and to the interests of the parties involved. However, we cannot abdicate our responsibility to our own citizens and to the allies on whom we might have to rely again in the future.  When we are directly asked for our help, and we are in a position to help, and the alternatives to helping are much worse than getting involved, then the logical thing to do is to help. With Saudi Arabia now pursuing Russian weapons, Turkey realigning with Iran, and the Baghdad government contesting the ownership and control of the Kurdish oil fields, particularly in areas, also contested by Turkey, we are allowing other powers with far more belligerent intentions to maintain and increase control over issues and region that have a significant impact over our own interests.

Are these the countries we really want to be the big decisionmakers over the fate of our allies? Are these states we trust to continue their geopolitical ambitions to remold the region according to their own preferences, which will likely destroy any opportunity for peace, stability, and our free ability to trade without our partners? The history of our country starts with the difficult but necessary decision of having to fight Barbary wars in order to clear our passage to vital trade routes and insure the freedom of the seas.  The realignment of powers in the Middle East is about far more than the fate of any individual nation, though if Iran and Turkey assume complete control, the woeful fate of Iranian minorities will not escape Iraqi Kurds, Christians, and anyone who is not a mainstream Shi'a or Sunni in Syria, and that's just for a start. Nor is it good for our own business to stay out of an opportunity to back a much more reliable partner, who has already shown willingness to allow our companies to invest in their oil.  We have both security and trade interests in keeping Iran's, Turkey's, and Russia's role in the divisions of the Middle Eat to the minimum. Russia claims to have a traditional role in Syria, but it belongs there no more than we do, and with significantly less moral restraints. It is a threat to us and our allies, and we allow it to expand its spheres of influence far beyond where the Obama adminstration's feckless and confused policies have cornered us.

Right now we have an opportunity to play a decisive role in protecting those who have called out to us, as well as standing up for our own interests, and determining whether neo-colonialist tyranny or relative stability and possibility of modernization prevail in the Middle East. THe role we decide to play may ultimately determine not just the direction of the region, but the relationship of the region to the rest of the world for generation to come. We are not the only ones understanding the importance of stepping up to the plate and assuming responsibility at a crucial moment. Israel is training Kurdish pilots.

 Kurdistan WILL eventually prevail as an independent state, with or without our help. But why not share in the sweetness of righteous victory after so many decades of short-sighted policies that have doomed us to an inevitable chain of dire consequences despite our best intentions? Instead of being played off against Russia and China by minor powers while pursuing quixotic and seemingly interminable power plays, why not assert ourselves in a move that is, for once, clear, well thought out, beneficial to the "good guys", including our own interests, and moral? A move that for once, doesn't force us into choosing the lesser of evils, but actually has us firmly choosing the one constructive, forward-looking course of action where we will can assert a great deal of control rather than have to react haphazardly to the unexpected moves from our adversary? Why not help forge our own plans in conjunction with real partners, instead of merely following or falling in line or trying to disrupt the plans of everyone else?

We should learn lessons from our past and stop wasting our times about knee-jerk moves responsive to someone else's dreams and strategies. Time to build our own self-interested foreign policy based in sound considerations, strong and growing relationships, rational assessment of our capabilities and regional trends, and focused on investing in our future rather than trying to make accounting with the past and forever trailing behind. Time for once, to put America first, not Iran, Russia, Turkey, or some tinpot dictator who seeks to constrain the freedom of our actions and to cut down our own ability to grow, trade freely, and travel securily.