Paddock: A Selfish Loon or a Terrorist?

Terrorists are counting on their actions to have mass effect.

They are looking to maximize the number of victims and to spread  panic among the public.

Whatever Stephen Paddock's affiliation, political background, or underlying views, there is no question that he was looking to facilitate the greatest number of victims. The issue is whether he was merely seeking revenge on the world for some perceived personal wrong or whether he was politically motivated.

I tend to doubt that it was some professional grievance, such as a firing, that set him off, because this action was not taken against his past employers. Either there was some deeply personal issue no one knows about involving country music, Las Vegas, or some group of people he had a grievance with, or there was some underlying social or political point he was trying to make, and I think the latter is more likely based on how much care he appears to have taken to hide his motivations.

Many mass shooters who are not politically motivated have a history of aggressive self-expression, rhetoric, drawings, or odd behavior that catches attention along the way but is not analyzed and processed in good time. It's indeed possible that Paddock's family and close associates simply ignored what should have been obvious red flags.

But even careful planners of mass shootings generally give away some level of grievance over time. If Paddock's brother is accurate, and the murderer was so secretive that no one knew what he was up to nor had any reason to believe that something extraordinary was going on, he was likely involved in some social or political cause.